Pandemic Preparedness: Strategies and Tools

December 14, 2007
MaRS Collaboration Centre - CR-3
MaRS Discovery District
101 College Street
Toronto, ON

The last 3 influenza pandemics, in 1918, 1957 and 1968, killed approximately 40 million, 2 million and one million people worldwide, respectively(1). It seems that on average pandemics causing high morbidity and mortality have occurred every 25 years during the last century. Most experts agree that the next pandemic is overdue. If a new pandemic were to occur, between 2 million and 7.4 million people, worldwide, could die including 11,000 to 58,000 Canadian (2). And, 4.5 to 10.6 million Canadians could become ill (3).

Influenza outbreaks occur regularly every year. Recent outbreaks of avian influenza and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) have highlighted the need to use mathematical modeling, statistical estimation, computing and simulation, to determine whether they could reach severe epidemic proportions and eventually develop into pandemics. These models of the interactions between infectious agents and their hosts, disease spread, prediction systems, and response strategies, will be useful to policymakers, public health workers, and other researchers who want to develop better understanding of the dynamics of pandemic in order to enhance the pandemic preparedness and response plan.

In this symposium, some of these methods and tools for developing the best intervention strategies will be discussed. It will be a forum for interaction among healthcare providers, emergency planners, policy makers and academics. Through this interaction, we believe that a common understanding can be developed, as to how mathematical modeling, statistical estimation, computing and simulation tools can be used to develop the best intervention strategies for responding to a pandemic.

References:

(1) The North American Plan for Avian and Pandemic Influenza. Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America, August 2007
(2) Report on the Pandemic Preparedness Strategic Research Initiatives, CIHR-III, June 2007
(3) Report on the Pandemic Preparedness Strategic Research Initiatives, CIHR-III, June 2007

Organized by:
Thomas F. Coleman
Dean, Faculty of Mathematics and Director, UW@MaRS
University of Waterloo

Agenda:

Chair:
Dr. Ian McKillop,
JW Graham Research Chair in Health Information Systems and Executive Director,
University Health Research,
University of Waterloo

8:30 AM – 9:00 AM	Continental Breakfast and Registration
9:00 AM – 9:15 AM	Welcome address
9:00 AM – 9:15 AM	Dr. Thomas F. Coleman, Dean, Faculty of Mathematics - University of Waterloo Dr. Ilse Treurnicht, CEO - MaRS Discovery District
9:15 AM – 9:45 AM	Pandemic Planning: Issues and Challenges
	Tiffany Jay , Director, Emergency Management - Ontario Ministry of Health and Long Term Care
	Abstract to follow
9:45 AM – 10:30 AM	Quantitative planning for epidemic and disaster response: an engineering approach to public health response logistics
	Nathaniel Hupert, MD, MPH, Assistant Professor of Public Health and Medicine, Weill Medical College - Cornell University Jack Muckstadt, Acheson-Laibe Professor, Dept. of Operations Research and Industrial Engineering - Cornell University
	Over the last seven years Cornell University has been at the forefront of the emerging field of public health operations research with major modeling projects in bioterrorism and disaster response, pandemic influenza planning, and HIV/AIDS treatment scale-up. During this presentation we will demonstrate models that apply classic methods of operations research - simulation, stochastic models, and optimization -to these pressing health issues.
10:30 AM – 11:00	Break
11:00 AM – 11:30 AM	Pediatric Pandemic Planning: Examining Psychosocial Issues and Considerations
	Dr. David Nicholas - Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto
	Given the threat of a pandemic outbreak, preparatory planning is urgently required. Consideration of strategies must consider unique contingencies and needs of given populations. Lessons learned from the SARS outbreaks in Canada suggest that paediatric populations were uniquely and dramatically affected by such a health emergency. Despite milder illness impacts on children with SARS, affected children and their families reported a wide range of concerns including: isolation; heightened anxiety regarding infection control; fear of accessing the hospital system; financial hardship; disruption and reduced access to services; compromised physical health; and complicated grief reactions when dealing with a child's critical illness during the outbreak. Given that ill children are a vulnerable population with unique health care and developmental needs it is important to understand pandemic planning as it relates to paediatric care. This presentation will be based on lessons learned during SARS, following recent evaluation studies. Recommendations and considerations in moving forward will be discussed.
11:30 AM – 12:00 PM	Emerging Infectious Diseases: How to Prepare When We Don't Know the Enemy?
	Dr. Babak Pourbohloul, Director, Mathematical Modeling - UBC Centre for Disease Control and Assistant Professor, Health Care & Epidemiology - University of British Columbia
	The underlying contact structure among individuals that determines the pattern of disease transmission and the progression in time of this pattern are two crucial elements in understanding and controlling communicable disease spread within a social setting. Recent advances in mathematical modeling have provided us the means to tackle emerging infectious disease concerns head-on and the BC Centre for Disease Control plays a leading role in integrating these new tools into public health policy design in Canada. This talk aims to share the concepts and applications of these new techniques with the scientists and decision-makers interested in communicable disease control. We demonstrate how these tools can be used to address pandemic influenza preparedness as well as preparedness plans for the natural or deliberate release of infectious agents during a major public event such as Vancouver Olympic and Paralympic Games 2010.
12:00 PM – 12:15 PM	Closing Remarks
12:00 PM – 12:15 PM	Dr. Siv Sivaloganathan Director, Centre for Mathematical Medicine, Fields Institute Professor, Dept. of Applied Mathematics - University of Waterloo

registration is now closed.